What a great week in the market. This week has brought the return for July up to 2.2%!

Stock Prediction Model Performance
Model 10%
SPY 12.73%

Accuracy 56.86%

Results from 4/20/09 through 7/16/09 minus the two weeks I was out of town in early June. I'll try to post some more detailed performance numbers soon.

The prediction for Monday July 20th 2009 is again UP.

The prediction for tomorrow July 17th remains UP.

What a great day in the market!

The prediction for tomorrow July 16th remains up.

The SPY prediction for tomorrow July 15th is again UP.

The model is starting to line up a little more and it's nice to see a stronger market. I'll post the performance of the predictions vs. the SPY later this week.

Finally a nice jump in the market.

The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

The prediction for Monday is again UP.

We have to come out of this slump sooner or later.

Sorry for the late post. The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

The prediction for tomorrow remains up.

The prediction for tomorrow is up.

Correction on Performance from April 22nd through July 2nd
S&P 500 return - 7.59%
Prediction Model - 5.29%

The prediction for tomorrow is up.

Prediction Performance from April 22nd through July 2nd
S&P 500 return - 7.59%
Prediction Model - 6.98%

Directional Accuracy - 58.97%

The model has been fairly disconnected for the past couple weeks and I'm eager to see if it stays disconnected or moves closer to where the S&P 500 is trading. So far the model has been fairly accurate but is yielding slightly lower then the S&P 500.

The prediction for Monday is up.

The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

The prediction for tomorrow is again UP.

Correction: The title for the last two days were July 30th and July 29th. That was a typo and has been corrected to June 30th and June 29th.

The predictions model was running pretty high above the SPY but is staring to come back in line. Unless we get a huge jump in the market it looks like we'll be long through the week.

The prediction for tomorrow is again UP.

The prediction for Monday remains UP.

The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

The prediction for tomorrow remains UP.

I was slightly disappointed with the results of the forecasting while I was gone but at least I wasn't invest during this time.

	SPY	Forecast	Action	Results
6/19/09	92.04	99.700	Long	$(0.18)
6/18/09	92.22	99.470	Long	$0.67
6/17/09	91.55	99.613	Long	$(0.09)
6/16/09	91.64	99.442	Long	$(1.26)
6/15/09	92.9	99.498	Long	$(2.18)
6/12/09	95.08	92.140	Long	$0.26
6/11/09	94.82	91.737	Long	$0.42
6/10/09	94.4	90.904	Long	$(0.24)
6/9/09	94.64	90.420	Short	$(0.48)
6/8/09	94.16	90.212	Short	$0.39
6/5/09	94.55	89.042	Short	$(0.02)

As I mentioned I'm not going to include these results in the analysis of the forecasting model but I'm expecting great results after the performance while I was gone. The performance while I was gone was a loss of $2.71 per share of the SPY ETF.

The prediction for tomorrow is UP with a target of 100.94.

The prediction for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains DOWN.

The model is still off from the recent gain in the market but I think that will correct itself soon with a decline in the stock market.

Tomorrow I am leaving on vacation out of the country and won't be back until the 21st of June. Most likely I will not be posting predictions while I'm gone. I will take the days I'm gone out of the model accuracy and return since the model results won't be posted until after I return.

Before I leave I'm going to sell out of my short SPY position so that I don't have to worry about monitoring it while on vacation.

Happy trading!

The prediction for tomorrow remains DOWN.

The prediction for tomorrow remains DOWN.

The model still shows that this run should end soon.

The prediction for tomorrow remains DOWN.

The recent predictions from the model have not been as accurate as I had hoped and as accurate as when I started testing. However, looking over the back testing there were times where the model had been pretty off for a week or more. Most of those instances resulted in a big change in directions like the model is currently forecasting. I'm keeping faith and betting the market will still take a turn.

Be sure to sign up for our daily updates under "Subscribe to this Blog" in the right column. We update our forecast on this blog first so this is the fastest way to receive our stock market forecasts before the closing bell.

The prediction for Monday remains DOWN.

The spread between the forecasts and the SPY is growing which means we could be in for a couple percentage point drop in the S&P 500. Be sure to sign up for our daily updates under "Subscribe to this Blog" in the right column. We update our forecast on this blog first so this is the fastest way to receive our stock market forecasts before the closing bell.

Have a great weekend!

The prediction for tomorrow remains DOWN.

Be sure to sign up for our daily updates under "Subscribe to this Blog" in the right column.

The prediction for tomorrow remains DOWN.

Be sure to sign up for our daily updates under "Subscribe to this Blog" in the right column.

We had a good winning streak going and unfortunately the streak was broken on a huge up day like today. But even with an up day like today the prediction for tomorrow remains DOWN.

So far the prediction model has done pretty well. The S&P 500 has been up 6.7% since 4/20/09 and the prediction model on the SPY (ETF that mimics the S&P 500) has been up 10.96%. It's still pretty early in the testing as we have only had a little over a month of predictions but this model has shown promise. I will continue to update the predictions as often as I can along with the continued performance as I continue to test the model.

Thanks for following!

The prediction for May 26th 2009 for the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains down.

Be sure to subscribe to this blog to receive daily updates on our stock predictions.

The S&P 500 held a late rally pushing the SPY over 88.75. As mentioned in the prior post that on this move like this our prediction for tomorrow will remain DOWN.

The stock prediction for the SPY for May 21st has changed to UP providing that the SPY does not rally too much from it's current position at $88.51. If we cross back above $88.75 then the prediction will remain down.

Read more about the SPY predictions.
See our free sample stock portfolio.

The stock prediction for the SPY for May 21st remains DOWN.

Read more about the SPY predictions.
See our free sample stock portfolio.

Sorry for the late post. The prediction for today May the 20th remains Down.

I was able to update twitter on the road @SPYPrediction, but I have to search for good app to update this blog.

I will also post the accuracy and total return of these predictions this weekend. Make sure to add this blog to your reader or follow us on Twitter.

I will most likely be away from my computer before the closing bell today and will not be able to post a prediction until later this evening. Hopefully I'll still be able to post while the after hours market is still open.

Currently it appears that the prediction will remain DOWN.

Read more about the SPY predictions.
See our free sample stock portfolio.

The prediction for the SPY for tomorrow the 19th is DOWN over the close today.

Read more about the SPY predictions.
See our free sample stock portfolio.

The prediction for the SPY for tomorrow the 19th is UP over the close today.

Read more about the SPY predictions.
See our free sample stock portfolio.

One of the new features of Market Flavor is a daily prediction for the S&P 500. I have spent the last couple months building a forecasting model for the SPY, which is an ETF (exchange traded fund) that mimics the moves of the S&P 500. This model has proven to be accurate in back testing of over 10 years, but the big question is how will it do at predicting movement in the S&P 500 for the future. I will be posting the predictions as often as I can on this blog as well as through twitter under SPYprediction.

I will periodically post the accuracy rate and the percentage increase the model has achieved.