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Rising Crude Prices and the Effects on Gas Prices and the Economy

As many of you have probably noticed, crude is on it's way up again and looks like it could break $90 soon. As these prices start trickling down to the pump we are sure to hear a new outcry and possibly see some habit changes from consumers.

But what does this mean for the consumer and the economy? One argument is that it's good for the economy because it shows economic expansion. While thats true it also puts a big cramp on the the profitability of companies that depend on this commodity. Higher gas prices are bad for the consumer, especially with the current problems in the housing market. With this causing a problem for the consumer it appears it would also be a problem for the economy.

One area we continue to like is technology. The higher price of gasoline could be a nice boost to internet traffic. As people travel less they will most likely spend more time searching on the internet. Great news for Google Inc. (GOOG)

Is it good for the oil companies? Probably for companies that drill for oil like GlobalSantaFe Corporation (GSF). But consumers might start demanding less which could also hurt them after a while.

Crude is becoming much more expensive to pull out of the ground. Companies that can find crude more efficiently should be in high demand. Schlumberger Limited (SLB) is a great example of a company like this, even thought it's a little expensive right now. Please note that SLB is an American Depositary Receipt (adr) stock.

In the long run crude and gas prices will rise with inflation and possibly faster do to the difficulty of pulling crude out of the ground. We have been fairly resilient to these increases in the past so we should also be alright this time. Crude prices also seem to be unjustified at these levels for an extended period of time. It seems as though these prices are driven by fears which hopefully will soon be reduced.

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Comments (2)

Tex Pitfield:

Nov. 6, 2007

Interesting comments about the price of fuel, although we have missed a couple of key points in the discourse.

Don't forget that the oil companies and refiners profits were huge and reached unknown highs with crude in the $30 to maybe $60 range.

Meanwhile, gas was at $2.30+/-.

Now crude is at $100, give or take a few bucks and gas has not even hit $3.00.

So we need to ask what will give. Is crude going back to $50 or less, or does gas need to be up at $4.00? Markets barely retrace 50% of their gains, although United States gas at $4 would put the US economy into a tailspin and most certainly drag the rest of the world with it. That in itself would knock crude oil down, although with the demand in China, India and elsewhere, it might be a very different market from what we have experienced in the past.

America has had it on easy street for years. Huge inefficient gas guzzling behemoths and cheap gas, while, for the most part fuel throughout the rest of the world (excluding Waco states like OPEC members and Venezuela) has been in the $7 or $8 range for years. And who else anywhere in the world drives 7000 pound SUV’s with mileage rating in the high single digits?

Meanwhile, with the extravagant waste in Iraq, the supporting of OPEC for the most inane of reasons, and a complete disregard for fuel economy, global warming and a host of other “in your face signs” that the US needs to look for an alternative fuel solution, the American Federal Government is leading us down the road of invariable self destruction.

Here’s a thought.

How about we pull out of Iraq, where we have already lost, and will likely never win, and stop supporting OPEC. Will fuel be expensive for a few years, yes, but look at the upside.

All the Billion$$ we are wasting overseas we can put to work in America, creating an alternative fuel infrastructure.

Forget Bio-Diesel and Ethanol. They are a croc, and it saves nobody money.

I am speaking about a reliable, safe and alternative fuel, most likely some form of Hydrogen Fuel Cells.

Imagine the industries created and increase in economic strength building this huge revolutionary infrastructure. Imagine the new jobs created with the building of Alternative Fuel Plants, technology and the vehicles to go with it.

Granted, many might have to get off welfare and get a job, but how tough could that be.

But the deal is, it all gets made in America. Build it in China or anywhere else with the exception of perhaps Canada and Mexico (like it or not we need them, and a united continent would be of huge benefit) and we accomplish nothing.


hallie:

grrrr!!!!


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